After each elimination on American Idol, it gets more and more difficult to select who will end up in the Bottom 3 and then be eliminated that week. Last week, I had assumed DeAndre would be in the Bottom 3 and he was not there. But this week with Heejun gone and with Skylar performing last, I think DeAndre has a much better chance of being in the Bottom 3. He is at the bottom of the
DialIdol raw scores and one of the top 3 picked to be leaving on the
Idol Chatter elimination poll (with over 3,000 votes.) I am surprised to see Elise being picked as one of the three most likely to leave on the poll since I thought she performed better than a few other contestants. I am also surprised to see her third from the bottom on the
preliminary WhatNotToSing ratings. I did not think Skylar's performance was as great as the judges thought it was until the last few lines, so I am also surprised to see her on the top of the WNTS ratings.
I am not so sure about Hollie Cavanagh. She actually has the highest number of votes on DialIdol, but she was pretty high in raw votes last week too and she still was in the Bottom 3. With her rather lackluster "up tempo" solo performance I can see her again being in the Bottom 3 again. She is the top pick on the Idol Chatter poll to leave and dead last on the WNTS ratings. She needs a lot of power voting fans to survive much longer.
Now that we have 5 weeks of finalists performing I decided to plot the WhatNotToSing ratings (solos only) for the Top 8 to see if we can see any trends:
The only obvious line is for DeAndre who has a pretty prominent trend on the low side of the ratings. Elise had been on a very nice rise until this week, and Jessica had a similar nice increase in the last two weeks until last night. Phillip had been pretty consistently in the middle until tanking this week, and Joshua has been consistently in the middle except for his one high point on Top 11 week. Skylar has actually been pretty consistently solid and has been increasing over the past couple weeks now, but Hollie seems to be in a downward trend. Colton had a slight dip last week but has been otherwise very solidly in the top half of the scores.
Before I saw this morning's data my guess for the Bottom 3 was DeAndre, Hollie and Joshua, but now perhaps Elise will be replacing Joshua in the Bottom 3. The only folks who are safe for sure this week are Phillip, Colton, Skylar and Jessica. I could see any of the other being the bottom vote receiver tonight. And on which of those would the judges use the "Save"? Any of them? Maybe Joshua or Elise, but probably not Hollie or DeAndre.
