WhatNotToSing is Back! Hurray!

Now that the voting rounds are back on Idol that means it is time for WhatNotToSing.com to start posting their data again. I love their data and their site! I checked their results for the two nights and they seem to have the obvious folk on the top and the obvious folk at the bottom. It should be easy to predict some contestants, but others will be tougher to predict. First the obvious ones who should be in the Top 10 by performance and popularity:

Guys: Joshua Ledet, Phillip Phillips, Colton Dixon
Girls: Elise Testone, Jessica Sanchez, Skylar Laine

I think these are the only six that are for sure finalists. Even if they are not voted in they would be otherwise be selected as a wildcard by the judges. That means there are definitely two more guys and girl slots plus the wild cards to fill. I still find it amazing there ended up being only 12 girls performing last night when they brought back Jermaine on Tuesday. I think what might be easier to predict first are some of the ones who are definitely not going to make it. From the girls' raw DialIdol scores a few things are apparent:

First off Chelsea, Brielle, Baylie and Haley hardly had anybody using DialIdol to mass vote for them. That is a bad sign. Even though Brielle was calculated to be the highest DialIdol score for the girls, that was another statistical error and I think she is a goner (just like Tatynisa Wilson last year). Chelsea, Baylie and Haley will probably join her. That leaves Hollie, Shannon, Jen, Hallie and Erika still fighting for 2 girl slots and the three wildcards. I am thinking Hollie has the Internet buzz and popularity to secure one of the other voted slots, and that the judges like Jen Hirsch too much to not wild card her if she is not voted in. That leaves Shannon, Hallie and Erika still in the air. Of those three I am betting either Shannon or Erika will get the last voted in slot. I think if either is not voted in they will likely be given a wild card slot too, which means seven probable girls so far: Elise, Jessica, Skylar, Hollie, Jen, Shannon and Erika.

Looking at the guys, I would have pegged Heejun to be a finalist for sure if his performance on Tuesday was not so lackluster. However, I still think he probably has the popularity to win one of the voted slots. I think with the guys, their vocal performance is not as important as other factors which makes them much harder to predict. The worst thing they can do is to not be interesting, and that hurts some contestants who are pretty good vocalists, but not as endearing and entertaining as other folks (Aaron, Jeremy, Chase). If Heejun takes the 4th voted slot, that only leaves one remaining, and of the remaining contestants I am thinking Deandre, Reed or even Eben may grab it. Frankly there is a chance that Joshua may not receive one of the voted slots if a more popular guy has enough power voting fans to push him to fifth or sixth place. From last night's DialIdol, Jermaine actually had a good number of raw votes and a lot of busy signals which means a lot of people actually voted a lot for him to possibly give him a voted slot. That would be something if Joshua did not receive a voted slot and would have to be given a wildcard slot by the judges (he had only the 6th highest raw vote count on DialIdol). If we are assuming Jermaine and Heejun both get voted slots, that would push us up to five total guys: Colton, Phillip, Heejun, Jermaine and Joshua. Since there is bound to be one more guy, I am guessing it may be a voting contest between Reed and Deandre, or maybe even Chase or Eben. Who knows who has more fans who are willing to power vote for them.