I was curious if any of the betting sites had removed Jeremy yet and gave us some new betting odd numbers, and sure enough Pinnacle Sports has updated their
American Idol Season 11 odds to win page. Luckily I also captured the numbers
from the beginning of the week so I can make some cool comparisons! I generated a ranked list of the Top 12 based on todays odds and it shows some interesting things:
The two with the lowest betting odds remain the same (Jessica and Phillip) but that is when things start to diverge quite a bit. On Pinnacle their 3rd lowest odds were on Elise on Monday, but after her near elimination her odds have soared from 9.0 to 34.0, making her the second highest long shot behind Jermaine. Skylar and Colton had been tied with the 4th lowest odds before (9.5) and Skylar's had dropped a little to 7.5 whereas Colton's has increased slightly to 12.0. Meanwhile Hollie's odds lowered from 12.11 to 10.0 giving her the 4th lowest betting odds now. So now 3 of the 4 contestants with the lowest betting odds (i.e. the ones believed to be most likely to win) are the "little ladies with the big voices". We have not seen that on American Idol for a while! The most consistent odds belong to Heejun who sees his odds increase hardly at all from 14.45 to 14.5 keeping his as the 6th lowest odds. Joshua had been about even with Heejun earlier (14.7) , but after being a bottom 3 vote getter his odds increased a bit more to 18.0 putting him in the 7th position. DeAndre saw the biggest drop in his odds, as he was a wildcard before, but ended up in the top 4 guys this week. In 8th position his odds dropped from 31.75 to 26, still pretty high odds, but still an improvement. Shannon after being placed in the bottom 3 last night, however, saw her odds jump the other way, shooting up from 15.79 on Monday to 29 today. Erika's also dropped a little from 27.86 to 31. And the highest odds belong to Jermaine (who was also Pinnacle's long shot on Monday) jumping from 36 to 76, making a winning bet on him worth quite a bit!
The way they separated out the bottom 3 for the guys and gals separately last night gave us a lot more information on the voting than we have seen in the past. We can see clear divisions within each gender, but it is difficult to guess how the voting numbers compare between the two genders. For both the gals and guys we now have a definitely top 3: Jessica, Skylar and Hollie for the ladies and Phillip, Colton and Heejun for the guys. Even though DeAndre was not in the bottom 3 last night, we know he was not in the Top 5 the week before (whereas Joshua and Jermaine were) so we can now group those three together. Shannon and Elise were Top 5 ladies from last week but were voted in the bottom 3 this week, so they along with Erika form the "second tier" amongst the ladies. I wonder if the fact that Joshua and Erika were first removed to "safety" means they were the top vote getters of the bottom 3. They never said that for sure so I would not definitely bet on it.
Luckily last season demonstrates things can always change, as Pia held the lowest odds up until the week she was surprisingly eliminated, and Haley had some of the highest betting odds early on, yet, ended up coming in 3rd place. Scotty did remain among the top 3 lowest betting odds all season long too, though, so an early front runner can indeed win it all in the end. I will just have to track the numbers and see what happens!
