Now that there are only 3 contestants left we can look at the six different permutations of how they will end up finishing and try to sort the permutations in the probability of each of them happening. I do not think any of them are a done deal for certain, but some are definitely more probable than others. My first guess is the same ordering that MJ has on her blog, MJ's BigBlog, so I will start there:
A) 3: Lauren, 2: Haley, 1: Scotty
I follow MJ's logic that Haley will make it to the finale because she is not country, and between the two country teens Scotty will beat Lauren into the finale. But once we get to the finale, Scotty wins it. This is the most probable outcome but far from being a definite thing.
B) 3: Haley, 2: Lauren, 1: Scotty
If Haley is the girl that goes home this week, I think Scotty should win the finale over Lauren.
So in both of the top 2 options Scotty wins, and it ends up being about this week to determine which of the two girls makes it to second place.
C) 3: Scotty, 2: Haley, 1: Lauren
If Scotty is somehow eliminated this Thursday, Lauren will likely get all his votes and win easily next week.
I think A, B or C are most likely the only possible scenarios. My choice D has a slight chance of happening, but I cannot see E or F happening.
D) 3: Haley, 2: Scotty, 1: Lauren
If Haley gets eliminated and it is an "all country" finale, Lauren would somehow have to out entertain Scotty in the finale, and gain enough votes to win it all. This would become like last year between Lee and Crystal, and even though Crystal easily outperformed Lee on the final performance night, he still won since he is male. Lauren's best chance of winning is if Scotty goes out this week, but there is a slight chance she could win over him. In either case, both Scotty and Lauren will sign record deals, and if they end up #1 and #2, I could easily see them going on tour together as the "American Idol County Teen Duo". They may even record a single or two together.
E) 3: Scotty, 2: Lauren, 1: Haley
In the unlikely event that Scotty gets eliminated this week, and it is the two girls in the finale, it is hard to imagine Haley winning over Lauren, but that is still more likely than:
F) 3: Lauren, 2: Scotty, 1: Haley
If Lauren goes this week and it becomes Scotty versus Haley, I find it almost impossible to believe that Haley could beat Scotty in the finale. Scotty would get all the country votes, and a majority of the female votes.
So following my sorted list of the possible permutations, Haley has almost no chance of winning. Ironically, if I were going to sort the Final 3 in terms of different criteria, I would probably rank them:
Vocal ability: 1) Haley, 2) Lauren, 2) Scotty
Stage Presence: 1) Haley, 2) Scotty, 3) Lauren
iTunes Recording Quality: 1) Haley, 2) Lauren, 3) Scotty
Giving 110% Effort on Stage: 1) Haley, 2) Scotty, 3) Lauren
Marketable "Looks": 1) Haley, 2) Lauren, 3) Scotty
Distinctive Sound: 1) Haley, 2) Scotty, 3) Lauren
Artistic Expression: 1) Haley, 2) Lauren, 3) Scotty
where Haley wins in all cases, except:
Popularity with Southern AT&T Text Messengers: 1) Scotty, 2) Lauren, 3) Haley
Who the Producers Want to Win: 1) Lauren, 2) Scotty, 3) Haley
Of course, I could be completely wrong, but that is how I see it!