Pre-Finale Synopsis - How to Win American Idol

We are down to the final two on American Idol, and I had to check their latest odds of winning and they have not changed at all since last Friday. Scotty McCreery is still clearly the one most likely to win the title of "Season 10 American Idol" over Lauren Alaina, but he may not be the one claimed later to be the real winner. To demonstrate what I mean just look at the last two seasons. It is actually much better to end up runner-up and be the one who "should have won" as opposed to the one who receives the most votes tonight. Arguably most people would probably say Crystal Bowersox outperformed Lee DeWyze on last season's finale and Adam Lambert probably outperformed Kris Allen on the Season 8 finale, so they have both been considered the "should have won" winners of both those seasons, especially after their albums sold more than the actual vote winners. However, what is best of all is to outperform your opponent and also receive the most votes, since then you are considered the best in both worlds (a la Kelly Clarkson). So we can rank the best outcomes for any contestant on an American Idol finale show:

1) Outperform your opponent, Receive the most votes (you win and deserve it - Kelly Clarkson, Jordin Sparks, Fantasia)
2) Outperform your opponent, Receive less votes (lose the Idol title, but perform best - Adam Lambert, Crystal Bowersox)
3) Under perform your opponent, Receive less votes (you lost but deserved to lose - Justin Guarini, Diana DeGarmo)
4) Under perform your opponent, Receive the most votes (you win but do not deserve it - Lee DeWyze, Kris Allen)

So the absolute worst thing to do is to "pull a Lee DeWyze" which means to be trumped in your final performance but still actually win. One of the biggest factors, however, is not even completely in your hands -- the song choice for the released single of both contestants. Here Lee stumbled big time last year by picking a song that did not sound like a Lee DeWyze song at all. "Beautiful Day" was a great song for U2, but not for Lee DeWyze, especially not the arrangement he performed where his voice was buried on the final performance show. Frankly, Crystal's "Up To The Mountain" was not a great choice for a single either, but at least she performed it flawlessly.

So for Scotty and Lauren their choice for their final song, their released single, makes a huge difference. We already know that Lauren is performing an album track from Kristy Lee Cook, "Like My Mother Does", and Scotty is performing a song called "Love You This Big" written by Tim Nichols (who also wrote "Live Like You Were Dying".) They both have to perform them very well and hopefully they will both sell. Since Scotty will most likely receive the most votes, I hope his single sells well (i.e. better than Lauren's) so he does not fall into the same "undeserved winner" role. At least Lee's single did sell better than Crystal's last year, even if his album did not. Another advantage of being runner-up is you have more time to work on your album before it is released, so if Lauren is lucky she may lose to Scotty in the voting, put out a single that sells better, and also have an extra month to produce an album which could also sell more than his. That may actually work out well for her in the long run.