After last night's American Idol, I had to check this morning to see how the numbers had changed. Of course,
DialIdol.com has not changed much and has not given either of the ladies the "green bar" of safety, only Scotty McCreery who continues to look untouchable. At this point it seems like he will win the whole competition, but it is much more uncertain as to who will end up number 2 between Lauren Alaina or Haley Reinhart. This is actually a pretty big deal, since besides Scotty only #2 is guaranteed a recording contract. Casey James ended up #3 last year, signed a supposed record deal and even toured with the popular country duo, Sugarland, but where in the world is his album a year later? Coming in as runner-up is definitely serious business, so it is important to find out who the lucky lady is who will get to congratulate Scotty to his victory next week! After last night the
Las Vegas odds at
bodog.com have also shifted slightly making Scotty's odds to win even more favorable (if that was possible):
Since these odds all have different ratios it is easier to see it in my lovely graph:
I can understand why Scotty's odds improved after an evening where he did not perform horribly or say anything stupid (which I believe is the only things that can stop him.) What I am not so certain is why Haley's odds slipped so much (from 7/2 to 11/2.) But now that I think of it, since Scotty performed so expectedly safely, that almost guarantees that Haley cannot win. Since Scotty is almost guaranteed a slot in the Final 2, Haley will either leave this week or face Scotty in the finale and lose. Lauren is the only contestant who might be able to beat Scotty in the finale, and even her odds of pulling that off are not that great.
However, I still think Haley has a reasonably good chance of beating Lauren to advance to the Final 2 and get that recording contract (the real goal). If we look at the preliminary
WhatNotToSing.com ratings, Haley yet again tops the list with the best performance of the week (for the third consecutive week):
If we average the three scores for this week for each person we end up with the ranking of:
1) Haley, mean score = 64
2) Lauren and Scotty, tied with a mean score = 49
and if we check the
Idol Chatter blog poll, once again almost half the people think Haley performed best overall for the evening, even if she is still picked by over of a quarter of the people to be leaving tonight:
Interestingly since I voted on the poll last night when there were a little over 3,000 votes, the percentage thinking Haley was best dropped significantly from 54% to 47%, while Scotty's percentage increased from 32% to 40%. Lauren continues to score as the one least picked as "best of night" and she is still the pick to leave this evening by a large margin (59% last night and 59% still.)
Who knows, there may still be a shocker tonight with Scotty leaving if enough Haley and Lauren fans both power texted more than the Scotty fans could. Yes, and maybe the Cubs will win the World Series this year too! (I'm a St. Louis Cardinals fan.)
