Tonight they reduce the group down to just 10, and I think this night's picks are a bit tougher than previous weeks. Conventional wisdom would say the bottom 3 will be Naima, Haley and some unfortunate soul, but I thought both Naima and Haley did fairly well last night. It might be easier to see who is definitely safe. If we check
DialIdol.com they have 5 contestants they say are safe: Scotty, James, Jacob, Pia and probably Stefano. Interestingly the next 2 on their ranking are last weeks bottom 3 dwellers, Naima and Haley, followed by Thia, Paul, Lauren and then Casey. The problem with the bottom dwellers here is they are actually among the more popular contestants, so I bet they have a lot of voters power voting for them. I will have to check another source for more numbers.
Another place to check is by looking at who people thought performed the worst last night, so I will use the poll on the USA Today
Idol Chatter blog which has almost
5,000 votes. There most think Haley performed worst, followed by Stefano, Thia, Casey and then Naima. There is not much correlation between the bottom of the DialIdol ranks and the worst performances as picked on that poll.
Now I will check the actual Las Vegas odds on
Bodog.com to see who they have as the
most likely to leave tonight. They have Haley as the odds on person to leave tonight at 1/2 odds, with Naima behind her at 2/1. They are followed by Stefano at 7/1, Paul and Thia at 10/1 and then Jacob at 25/1. They have five contestants all put at long shots to be eliminated tonight at 50/1: Casey, James, Lauren, Pia and Scotty. So I think it is safe to say the contestants most likely to be in the bottom 3 tonight are: Haley, Naima, Stefano, Paul and Thia.
So now it is time for my predictions. I am predicting it will again be an all female bottom 3 since I think both Paul and Stefano have enough avid female voters to sustain them. It should be Haley, Naima and Thia. Of those three Thia is definitely safe, and I am guessing Haley will probably leave. I do not think the judges will use the save on her either.
I also have the latest bar graph on the Vegas odds on who will win from the
bodog.com site. Haley has now grown to be a 100/1 longshot. That would be quite a payout if she won. James has also moved in front of Lauren and Scotty to at 4/1 odds, only behind Pia who has dropped to 5/2.
