American Idol Season 12 Top 9 - DialIdol Raw Numbers


Last week the known rankings of the total American Idol votes helped show how well the raw DialIdol numbers lined up with the actual votes, and overall it did very well. It placed Kree Harrison, Angie Miller and Candice Glover in the top 3, and placed Curtis Finch Jr at #10. Let's fill in the places in the middle from last week:

RankDialIdol Rank (Raw)Actual AI Rank
4Janelle Arthur (1851)Lazaro Arbos
5Lazaro Arbos (1703)Amber Holcomb
6Paul Jolley (1595)Janelle Arthur
7Amber Holcomb (1604)Burnell Taylor
8Devin Velez (1425)Paul Jolley
9Burnell Taylor (754)Devin Velez

This shows that DialIdol overestimates Paul and Janelle's ranking, and underestimates Amber and Burnell's. So if we use last night's total tally shown above, we can draw some conclusions. First off, Angie Miller is yet again the only contestant with any significant percentage of busy signals so we probably bet she will be again in the Top 3. I am not sure if Janelle will be in the actual Top 3 since her DialIdol votes had been overinflated, but I am guessing she will not be in the bottom 3. Devin seemed to get a lot more votes this week, and after being second from the bottom last week, I am guessing his fans will have voted a lot to keep him safe for this week. I am also somewhat surprised how few votes Candice Glover received after another strong performance. I am betting Paul Jolley and Burnell Taylor will be in the bottom 3 this week, but I am not sure who will be joining them. I would have hoped it would be Lazaro Arbos, but knowing how popular he is it may be someone else, but who? If Amber Holcomb ends up in the bottom 3 and Lazaro does not, there is definitely something wrong in the world!

Another thing I noticed was that there were over 19,000 DialIdol votes cast last week, but less than 16,000 votes cast this week. Are people already not caring that much? Curtis Finch had less than 1,000 votes last week so it cannot be just because he is gone. People just used DialIdol less, and March Madness games have not even started yet!

I also noticed last evening that the betting odds for the 9 remaining contestants had changed slightly from my numbers from over the past weekend.


Over the weekend Candice and Angie were tied as 9/4 favorites, but now Candice has pulled ahead at 2/1 where Angie still sits at 9/4. Kree's odds increased just slightly from 5/2 to 11/4 but everyone else stayed the same. I am not sure what changes these very slight changes.